Week 4 College Football Best Bets: Conference Play Just Means More
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Week 4 of the College Football Betting season just means more.
A full menu of conference play begins in the SEC and Big Ten. GameDay returns to Knoxville as the No. 1-ranked Longhorns face Tennessee. There are two other games in the SEC featuring ranked teams. Ole Miss heads to The Swamp. The Rebels ride high after their “national championship” Hate Bowl win over LSU. The Gators upended Auburn Saturday night. Texas A&M visits Death Valley to catch LSU on the rebound. Meanwhile, No. 2 Georgia plays host to Oklahoma in Athens.
The Big Ten enters its “real-game” phase with a pair of games featuring ranked teams: Iowa at Michigan and Oregon at USC. Meanwhile, Ohio State gets tested for a full 30 minutes at home against Illinois.
The Big 12 has three ranked teams in action. But only one – Utah – faces a conference for at Iow State.
Notre Dame’s march toward the College Football Playoff continues this week at Purdue.
College Football Week Four Best Bets: Odds & Picks
Here are Week Three College Football Best Bets. All odds from FanDuel via OddsJam.
CFB Week 4 Best Bets
preprod.bookies.com Picks · FanDuel Odds Via OddsJam
Buzz
The Wildcats can deliver a sneaky backdoor cover anywhere — even at Indiana. Northwestern is nobody's doormat, and this one sits a full field goal over what our model projects. Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers face their first semi-legit test post-Fernando; IU sputtered during the first half against Western Kentucky before rolling 38-0. Take the points here in what is a four-score line in all but name.
Buzz
Tigers & Bears? Oh my! Dabo saved the season — if not his job — in rallying past North Carolina Saturday, outscoring the Tar Heels 25-3 over the final three quarters and outlasting a long weather delay. Call it a "trap" game, or simply an emotional and physical letdown on the road across the country, late on a Friday night. Cal being home alone on national TV should give the Bears a nice lift.
Buzz
ESPN's College GameDay returns to Knoxville for a Manning family reunion, with Arch Manning anointed the sport's Crown Prince after Texas rallied past Ohio State two weeks ago. The 2026 Vols are more likely to resurrect an old Steve Spurrier line than compete for an SEC title, but this line opened at Texas -7, was bet down to 4.5, and has bounced back to -5.5. Freshman QB Faizon Brandon has 374 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, and Checker Neyland delivers with 100,000+ orange-and-white fans hot off GameDay. Road favorites of a touchdown or less get eaten alive here — even ones led by Arch.
Buzz
The Buckeyes washed the taste of the Texas loss out of their mouths Saturday, using Kent State as a big bottle of Scope in a 59-3 rout — no doubt still upset about giving up the 3. Illinois was the other early Big Ten surprise last season, and OSU may not lose again until January, if not next season. Our model has the Illini undervalued by 3 points here; a 52.5 total with a 26.5 spread works out to roughly Ohio State 40, Illinois 13 — give IU both PATs after those TDs and you'll get your number.
Buzz
Sam Houston took Texas Tech down to the wire Friday night; the Red Raiders whiffed on the 7.5-point line in a thrilling 28-26 win. Will Hammond will be QB1 for Joey McGuire moving forward after Tommy Castellanos struggled early, going 17-of-27 for 257 yards and a touchdown in relief. A perfect "tune-up" opportunity for Hammond and the offense ahead of the Big 12 run, before the subs take over in the second half.
Buzz
Wake Forest nabbed the backdoor cover (+20.5) in a 33-20 loss to Miami Friday night, with the Deacons' defense stiffening once the game was out of reach. Louisville pulled away late for a 41-31 win and cover over SMU to grab an inside track for the ACC title game — the teams swapped the lead eight times, and both QBs are stellar, but Louisville's balanced attack overwhelms a Wake Forest squad entering "letdown" territory after a tough home loss. The Cards come up Louisville on this spread, too.
Buzz
The Buffs got socked in the snout Saturday, 41-7 by Northwestern, and get no quarter this week in the Big 12. Both QBs — Baylor's Nate Bennett and Colorado's Julian Lewis — have 6 TD passes against just 2 picks apiece; Bennett stepped in after DJ Lagway got hurt in Week 1. With an 11 a.m. local kick in Waco, Baylor's defense should be able to contain a Colorado team that showed its true colors in Evanston. Lean into the under.
Buzz
Notre Dame has won the Shillelagh Trophy 122-37 over the past two seasons and closed as a 28.5-point favorite before beating Michigan State 27-10. After a slow start, C.J. Carr entered overdrive in the second half, finishing with 234 yards passing and a rushing TD, and the Irish defense remains unbowed during its 13-game winning streak. That should allow another dominant win over an overwhelmed Purdue squad — but oddsmakers know the Irish absorb buckets of cash, so look for another ND victory and a loss on the line at Ross-Ade.
Buzz
Ole Miss won its national championship Saturday night — Coach Pete Golding, QB Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels roared back from a 17-point halftime deficit to beat Lane Kiffin and LSU 32-24. Will they have anything left in the tank at Gainesville, inside The Swamp, amid the heat, humidity and scorn of 90,000? The Gators served notice on The Plains with a 44-39 win at Auburn. Florida's defense keeps it close as both teams swap scores all afternoon before the Gators win it — our model projects Florida +6.6, so you're getting a deal on the number if you want it.
Buzz
Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs have settled in nicely as the No. 2 team in the country, happy to let someone else deal with the No. 1 spotlight. The Sooners blew a wheel at Michigan two weeks ago and barely beat New Mexico 14-6 as 22.5-point favorites — trouble awaits Between The Hedges. Georgia's defense swarms and loves turnover-prone QBs like John Mateer, while Gunner Stockton (9 TDs, no picks) gets a chance to make his Heisman case on a national stage.
Buzz
The Utes have won their first three games by a combined score of 142-24. Things get tougher this week in Ames as both teams open Big 12 play — Iowa State and the under at home is one of the most natural plays in college football, with the Cyclones stifling defenses in and out of conference inside Jack Trice Stadium. Utah looks to run and control the line and the clock, which suits us just fine.
Buzz
Iowa's first Big Ten game comes in the form of a real test inside the Big House. Our model rates this as a near pick, so we'll give Michigan an extra second or two to steal a close win — but asking for more than a field goal here defies the numbers. Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games; Kirk Ferentz's whole operating system is keeping games close and grinding out covers as an underdog. This number has shrunk from 5.5 to as low as 4.
Buzz
TCU travels to Orlando for a 3:30 p.m. kick in oppressive heat and humidity, and the Bounce House will be full for UCF's Big 12 home opener. TCU fizzled on the road in Dublin to open the season against a North Carolina team that's proven to be as bad as advertised. Scott Frost's offense plays fast and can score with anyone — the 73-6 opener was FCS noise, but the tempo is legit. Just limit the mistakes.
Buzz
Houston put a big scare into Texas Tech Friday night before coming up short on a potential game-tying conversion, but still grabbed a solid backdoor cover as 9.5-point dogs. Our model sees Houston winning by 15.8 points — nearly four full points under this number. Georgia Southern's defense and the hearty Statesboro crowd keep this one under 20, with Houston taking it easy late before its long Big 12 run.
Buzz
Penn State stands out as the surprise Big Ten entry in the AP top 10, rolling through its non-conference slate with Matt Campbell and QB Rocco Becht poised for the conference fray. Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell may not survive a lopsided loss in Happy Valley — and this one could get very lopsided.
Buzz
A little boy was caught on camera yelling "Fire Beamer" during South Carolina's 41-34 home loss to Mississippi State — when you've lost the kids, you've lost the crowd. Look for Keelon Russell and Ryan Williams to connect often as the Tide rolls at home. Alabama needs every tiebreaker in its favor, since it would be shut out of the SEC title game with just one loss.
Buzz
K-State runs the ball well (303.5 rushing yards per game) and Cincinnati's run defense sprouts too many leaks. The Bearcats trailed Miami (Ohio) 28-7 before rallying to win 35-31, but K-State doesn't play in the MAC. Nippert Stadium remains a compact, loud, genuinely tough road environment, and this is Cincinnati's Big 12 opener — look for lots of offense on both sides.
Buzz
Our model has OSU as a slight 1.3-point favorite. Eric Morris has quietly engineered one of the most impressive turnarounds among all 138 FBS teams this season — the Pokes are 2-1 with an upset win over Oregon. Drew Mestemaker (8 TDs, 4 picks) is slinging it, the offensive line has allowed one sack in two weeks, and the full playbook is now installed. The Pokes begin to put the Big 12 on upset alert.
Buzz
The Wildcats take the national TV stage on the road as two-touchdown favorites at Pullman. Brent Brennan and Noah Fifita won't be thrown by the road crowd in the Pacific twilight. Washington State hasn't beaten a Power 4 team this season, losing to Washington and Kansas State by a combined 58-17, and its defense ranks 123rd among 138 FBS schools.
Buzz
The Tigers limp home to the comfort of Death Valley after their Old Testament Showdown loss to Ole Miss. Texas A&M hits the road after an embarrassing home loss to upstart Kentucky — Mike Elko still doesn't know what hit him Saturday, but his defense clearly cracked, and that's exactly where Kiffin and Sam Leavitt fit. LSU gets back on track for its Natty run with an easy win.
Buzz
USC's resume is thinner than 3-1 suggests — the Trojans barely escaped 42-35 against Rutgers at home, along with wins over Louisiana and San Jose State. Oregon, meanwhile, somehow lost to Oklahoma State at home before hanging an 84-burger on Portland State. Both QBs — Oregon's Dante Moore (9 TDs) and USC's Jayden Maiava (12 TDs, 1 pick) — are building Heisman resumes, and both teams average more than 500 yards of total offense per game. Last team that scores wins this one; the total is 62.5.
Buzz
Mississippi State edged into the Top 25 with a come-from-behind 41-34 win at South Carolina after trailing 16-0. Missouri's 38-21 win at Kansas two weeks ago is the better road result of the two, against a tougher environment than State has faced. This number slid from State -6 to -4.5 Sunday — Mississippi State climbing to No. 24 off a 3-0 start is exactly the market pressure pushing this line onto the wrong side.
Week 4 Bets Bets: Game-By-Game Analysis
Here's the rundown of our Week 4 College Football Best Bets All times are listed as ET
Week 4
Friday, September 15
Northwestern at (5) Indiana – 8 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Wildcats can deliver a sneaky back-door cover anywhere – even at Indiana. Northwestern is nobody’s doormat. This one sits a full field goal over what our model projects. Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers face their first semi-legit test post-Fernando. IU sputtered during the first half against Western Kentucky before rolling 38-0. Take the points here in what is a four-score line in all but name only.
Best Bet: Northwestern +23.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Clemson at California – 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Buzz: Tigers & Bears? Oh, my! A classic ACC matchup. Dabo saved the season – if not his job – in rallying past the North Carolina Belichicks Saturday. The Tigers outscored North Carolina 25-3 over the final three quarters and outlasted a long weather delay. Call it a “trap” game. Or simply an emotional and physical letdown on the road across the country on late on a Friday night. Cal being home along on national TV should give the Bears a nice lift.
Best Bet: Cal ML (-106) FanDuel via OddsJam
Saturday, September 26
(1) Texas at (14) Tennessee, 12 p.m. (ABC)
Buzz: ESPN’s College Football GameDay returns to Knoxville for a Manning Family Reunion/ Informercial. The Worldwide Leader anointed Arch Manning as College Football’s Crown Prince after Texas rallied past Ohio State two weeks ago. Uncle Peyton played at UT in the 1990s. The 2026 Vols are more likely to resurrect Steve Spurrier’s infamous quote: “You can’t spell Citrus (Bowl) without UT” than competing for an SEC title. Still, this line opened at Texas -7 and was bet down to 4.5 before bouncing back to Texas -5.5. Tennessee freshman QB Faizon Brandon has 374 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, and DeSean Bishop totes a secure rock. Checker Neyland delivers with 100,000+, orange-and-white clad denizens hot off GameDay. Even with an 11 a.m. local time kick. Road favorites of a touchdown or less get eaten alive here. Even ones led by Arch.
Best Bet: Tennessee +5.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Illinois at (7) Ohio State, 12 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Bucks washed the taste of that loss to Texas out of their mouths Saturday and used Kent State as a big bottle of Scope in a 59-3 rout. No doubt the Buckeyes were upset at giving up the 3. Illinois was the other surprise in the Big Ten last season – at least early. OSU may not lose again until January. If not next season. The Illini are undervalued here by 3 points, according to our model. Illinois can score – at least enough to keep this one within three TDs. A total of 52.5 with a 26.5 spread roughly Ohio State 40, Illinois 13. Give IU both PATs after those TDs and you’ll get your number.
Best Bet: Illinois -26.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Sam Houston at (11) Texas Tech, 12 p.m. (TNT)
Buzz: Houston took Texas Tech down to the wire Friday night. The Red Raiders whiffed on the 7.5-point line in a thrilling 28-26 win. Will Hammond will be QB1 for Joey McGuire moving forward after Tommy Castellanos struggled early Friday. Hammond went 17-of-27 passing for 257 yards and a touchdown in relief Friday. A perfect “tune-up” opportunity for Hammond and the offense head of their Big 12 run before the subs take over in the 2nd half.
Best Bet: Under 54.5 Points (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Wake Forest at (16) Louisville, 12 p.m. (ESPN)
Buzz: Wake Forest nabbed the backdoor cover (+20.5) in a 33-20 loss to Miami Friday night. The Deacons’ defense stiffened in the second half once it was out of reach. Louisville pulled away late in its 41-31 victory and cover over SMU to grab an inside track for the ACC title game. Those teams swapped the lead eight times. Both QBs are stellar. But Louisville’s balance attack overwhelms Wake Forest, which enters “let-down” territory after a tough home loss to Miami. The cards come up Louisville on this spread, too.
Best Bet: Louisville -13.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Colorado at Baylor, 12 p.m. (ESPNU)
Buzz: The Buffs got socked in the snout Saturday night 41-7 by Northwestern. They get no quarter this week in the Big 12. Both QBs – Baylor’s Nate Bennett and Colorado’s Julian Lewis – each have 6 TD passes against just 2 picks. Bennett backed up D.J. Langway, who got hurt in Week 1. This game has an 11 a.m. local time kick in Waco. Baylor’s defense should be able to contain Colorado, which showed its true colors in Evanston. Lean into the under.
Best Bet: Under 53.5 Points (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(3) Notre Dame at Purdue, 2 p.m. (Peacock)
Buzz: Notre Dame has won The Battle for the Shillelagh Trophy 122-37 during the past two seasons. ND closed as a 28.5-point favorite before beating Michigan State 27-10 Saturday. After a slow start, C.J. Carr entered overdrive in the 2nd half in finishing with 234 yards passing and a TD rushing. Notre Dame’s defense remains unbowed during its 13-game winning streak. That will allow the Irish to dominate against another overwhelmed Purdue squad. But oddsmakers know the Irish absorb buckets of cash. Look for another ND victory over the Big Ten - but loss on the line at Ross-Ade.
Best Bet: Purdue +27.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(4) Ole Miss at (21) Florida 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Buzz: Ole Miss won its National Championship Saturday night. Coach Pete Golding, QB Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels roared back after trailing by 17 at the half to to vanquish Lane Kiffin and LSU 32-24. Will they have anything left in the tank? At Gainesville? Inside The Swamp amid the heat, humidity and scorn of 90,000? The Gators served notice on The Plains Saturday with a 44-39 win at Auburn. Florida’s defense keeps it just close as both teams swap scores all afternoon before the Gators win it. Our model projects Florida +6.6, so you’re getting a deal on the number UF -3), if you want it.
Best Bet: Florida ML (-137) FanDuel via OddsJam
Oklahoma at (2) Georgia, 3:30 (ESPN)
Buzz: Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs have settled in nicely as the No. 2 team in the country. He’ll happily avoid the hub-bub of the No. 1 ranking and tell his Dawgs to keep chopping wood. The Sooners blew a wheel at Michigan two weeks ago and barely beat New Mexico 14-6 Saturday night in Norman as 22.5-point favorites. Trouble awaits Between The Hedges. Georgia’s defense swarms and lovers turnover-prone QBs like John Mateer. Meanwhile, Gunner Stockton (9 TDs, no picks) gets a chance to make his Heisman case on a national stage.
Best Bet: Georgia -13.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(15) Utah at Iowa State, 3:30 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Utes have won their first three games by a combined score of 142-24. Kyle Who? Things get a bit more challenging this week in Ames as both teams begin their Big 12 schedules. Iowa State and the under at home is one of the most natural plays in all of college football. The Cyclones stifle defenses in and out of the conference inside Jack Trice Stadium. Utah looks to run and control the line of scrimmage and the clock. That suits us just fine.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 Points (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(17) Iowa at (18) Michigan, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: The Hawkeyes first Big Ten game comes in the form of a real test inside the Big House. Our model rates this as a near pick. So we'll give Michigan an extra second or two to steal a close win. But asking for more than field goal here defies all the numbers. Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games. Kirk Ferentz's whole operating system is keeping games close and grinding out covers as an underdog. That's not a fluke trend — it's the program's identity. This number has shrunk from 5.5 to as low as 4.
Best Bet: Iowa +4.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
TCU at UCF, 3:30 p.m. (FS1)
Buzz: TCU has to travel to Orlando for a 3:30 p.m. kick (expect oppressive heat and humidity), and the Bounce House will be full for UCF's Big 12 home opener. TCU fizzled on the road in Dublin to open the season against a North Carolina team that's proven to be as bad as advertised. Scott Frost's offense plays fast and can score with anyone; the 73-6 opener was FCS noise, but the tempo is legit. Just limit the mistakes.
Best Bet: UCF +3.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(25) Houston at Georgia Southern, 4 p.m. (ESPNU)
Buzz: Houston put a big scare into Texas Tech Friday night before coming up short on a potential game-tying conversion. Still, the Cougars grabbed a solid backdoor cover as 9.5-point dogs. Our model sees Houston winning by 15.8 points - nearly four full points under this number. Southern's defense and the hearty crowd in Statesboro keeps this one under 20. Houston takes it easy late before its long and grueling Big 12 run.
Best Bet: Georgia Southern +18.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Wisconsin at (13) Penn State, 5 p.m. (Peacock)
Buzz: Penn State stands out as the surprise Big Ten entry currently in the top 15 of the AP Poll. The Lions rolled through their non-conference schedule. Matt Campbell and QB Rocco Becht are poised perfectly for the Big Ten conference fray. Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell may not survive a lopsided loss in Happy Valley. And this one could get very lopsided.
Best Bet: Penn State -9.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
South Carolina at (8) Alabama, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Buzz: A little boy was caught on camera yelling "Fire Beamer" during South Carolina's 41-34 home loss to Mississippi State. When you've lost the kids, you've lost the crowd. Look for Keelon Russell and Ryan Coleman-Willams to connect often as the Tide rolls at home. Alabama needs every tie-breaker in its favor give it would well be shutout of the SEC title game with just one loss. Think Cobra Kai: "Strike First. Strike Hard. No Mercy."
Best Bet: Alabama -12.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Kansas State at Cincinnati, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Buzz: K-State runs the ball well (303.5 rushing yards per game) and the Bearcats run defense sprouts too many leaks. Cincinnati trailed Miami (Ohio) 28-7 before rallying to win 35-31. But K-State doesn't play in the MAC. Nippert Stadium remains a compact, loud, genuinely tough road environment, and this is Cincinnati's Big 12 opener. Look for lots of offense on both sides.
Best Bet: Over 53.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 7 p.m. (FS1)
Buzz: Our model has OSU as a slight 1.3 favorite. Eric Morris has quietly engineered the most impressive turnaround among all 138 FBS teams this season. The Pokes are 2-1 with an upset win over Oregon. Drew Mestemaker (8 TDs, 4 picks) is slinging it, the offensive line has allowed one sack in two weeks, and the full playbook is now installed. The Pokes begin to put the Big 12 on upset alert.
Best Bet: Oklahoma State +2.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Arizona at Washington State, 7:30 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: The Wildcats take to the national network TV stage on the road as two-touchdown favorites at Pullman. Brent Brennan and Noah Fifita won't be thrown by the road crowd in the Pacific Twilight. Washington State hasn't beaten a Power 4 team this season, losing its games against Washington and Kansas State by a combined 58-17 score. Its defense ranks 123rd among all 138 FBS schools.
Best Bet: Over 49.5 Points (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(23) Texas A&M at (10) LSU, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Buzz: The Tigers limp home to the comfort of Death Valley after their Old Testament Showdown loss to Ole Miss. Texas A&M, hits the road after an embarrassing home loss to upstart Kentucky. Lane Kiffin should be able to relax a bit - even after blowing a 17-point halftime lead. Mike Elko still doesn't know what hit him Saturday. But his defense clearly cracked. That's where Kiffin and Sam Leavitt fit perfectly. LSU gets back on track for its Natty Run with an easy win.
Best Bet: LSU -9.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(20) Oregon at (12) USC, 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
Buzz: USC's resume is thinner than 3-1 suggests. The Trojans barely escaped 42-35 against Rutgers at home, in addition to beating Louisiana and San Jose State at home. The Ducks, meanwhile, somehow lost to Oklahoma State at home before hanging an 84-burger on Portland State. Both QBs - Oregon's Dante Moore (9 TDs) and USC's Jayden Maiava (12 TDS, 1 pick) - aim to use this game on their Heisman resumes. Both teams average more than 500-yards per game in total offense (Oregon 501.3 - 17th; USC 500.3 - 19th). Last team who scores wins this one. This total is 62.5.
Best Bet: USC +2.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
(19) Missouri at (24) Mississippi State, 7:45 p.m. (SEC)
Buzz: Mississippi State edged into the Top 25 with a come-from-behind 41-34 victory at South Carolina after trailing 16-0. Missouri's 38-21 win at Kansas two weeks ago the better road result of the two, against a tougher environment than State has faced. This number slid from State -6 to -4.5 Sunday. Mississippi State climbing to #24 off a 3-0 start is exactly the market pressure pushing this line onto the wrong side.
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