Miami Dolphins 2026 Head Coach Odds: Belichick, Kingsbury In Play?
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The half-decade honeymoon in Miami Gardens appears to be officially over, with Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel dropping what might as well have been a must-win game across NFL betting sites to the Cleveland Browns 31-6 on Sunday.
The 25-point loss knocks Miami to 1-6 for the year, effectively closing the door on the 42-year-old coach’s time with the Dolphins, even if reports indicate a change won't officially come this week.
All told, McDaniel’s record is now 29-29 with two postseason berths in 2022 and 2023, though his time in Miami Gardens has gotten strained as the club staggered through an 8-9 campaign in 2024 followed by this year’s clunker of a start.
With that in mind, preprod.bookies.com's Adam Thompson broke down the odds on who will replace McDaniel as the Dolphins next head coach, with a host of NFL coordinators and NCAA head coaches atop our list, plus a 8-time Super Bowl champion who'd welcome a chance to play the Patriots twice a year...
| Coach / Position | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kliff Kingsbury, Commanders OC | +500 | 16.7% |
| Bill Belichick, UNC HC | +600 | 14.3% |
| Todd Monken, Ravens OC | +750 | 11.8% |
| Kevin Stefanski, Browns HC | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Lincoln Riley, USC HC | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Mike McDaniel, Dolphins HC | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Jesse Minter, Chargers DC | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Mike Tomlin, Steelers HC | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Ryan Day, Ohio State HC | +1500 | 6.3% |
| Jeff Hafley, Packers DC | +1750 | 5.4% |
| Anthony Weaver, Dolphins DC | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Josh Grizzard, Bucs OC | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Deion Sanders, Colorado HC | +2500 | 3.9% |
| The Field | +900 | 10.0% |
Related: Next NFL Coach Fired.
Who Replaces McDaniel? A Look At The Dolphins Candidates
Kliff Kingsbury (Washington Commanders OC)
The former Texas Tech and Arizona Cardinals head coach has had a solid career turnaround in the Nation’s Capital, overseeing the Commanders renaissance offensively. For now, Kingsbury holds +500 odds of replacing McDaniel in Miami, starting things off as our top pick to be the next head coach of the storied AFC franchise.
The only thing to keep an eye on here is if Washington can get back to the playoffs this season. And after having just gone through the young-offensive minded McDaniel, would Kingsbury be enough of a reset?
Bill Belichick (UNC head coach)
It seems the eight-time Super Bowl champion would very much come back to the 32-team league if he gets any opportunity ... because it is not going well in Chapel Hill.
It’s hard to not see Belichick jumping at the chance to return to the AFC East, too, with the former Patriots sideline legend getting a shot to dish out revenge twice a year, which is part of the reason why we’re giving the 73-year-old +600 odds of taking one final job and finishing his NFL career with a shot at dishing out some comeuppance in Miami Gardens. But winning a few more games in Chapel Hill this season would help convince Dolphins Owner Stephen Ross to pursue him.
Belichick has had a tough PR year to say the least, and it's highly unlikely another NFL team will pursue him other than Miami.
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Todd Monken (Baltimore Ravens OC)
The former Georgia Bulldogs offensive coordinator has been in charge of Baltimore’s scheme since 2023, leading the team to the top-ranked scoring offense in two games this season, a year after Baltimore led the NFL in yard per game while ranking third in terms of points scored. With Lamar Jackson sidelined, it shouldn't hurt Monken's candidacy this offseason.
While Monken has never been an NFL head coach, he did coach Southern Miss from 2013 to 2015, with assistant coaching roles in the NCAA and NFL dating back to his graduate assistant days at Grand Valley State in 1989, with +750 odds of getting that elusive first job running an NFL team in the Dolphins in 2026.
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Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns head coach)
Stefanski has gotten the short end of the stick in Cleveland, going 42-49 (.462) with the franchise since taking over as head coach in 2019. He has, however, gotten the club to the postseason twice, going 11-5 in 2020 and 11-6 in 2023, before bottoming out at 3-14 in 2024 and 2-5 this year.
Despite his struggles, we’re giving Stefanski +1000 odds of being the next man up in Miami, should Cleveland opt to start fresh, with a change of scenery potentially opening the door to a brighter future for the 43-year-old that’s won the AP Coach of the Year award twice already.
Lincoln Riley (USC head coach)
While the last two years have been anything but pretty, that’s not to say that the ninth year NCAA head coach is not capable of great things. Riley came to USC as a hot-shot coach, having led Oklahoma to the CFP in 2018, 2019 and 2020, before leaving for Los Angeles in 2022.
With USC sitting pretty at 5-2 and Riley’s coaching stock rebounding thusly, the Dolphins might have to get in line early to get a shot at the 42-year-old, which is why we’re giving them +1100 odds of landing him out of the coaching transfer portal in 2025.
Other Coaches To Keep An Eye On
While we’ve started this list off with outside suitors, that’s not to say that McDaniel can’t do enough to keep his job, with +1200 odds of him returning to Miami in 2026, while two more current head coaches (Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ohio State head coach Ryan Day) are next in line to get the gig, at +1400 (Tomlin) and +1500 (Day).
Outside of those men, keep an eye on Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter (+1400), Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator and former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley (+1750), as well as Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver (+1800) to replace McDaniel, while Colorado Buffaloes head coach and former NFL legend Deion Sanders rounds out our Dolphins head coaching list, at +2500.
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