Next NFL Head Coach Fired: Odds & Hot Seat Tracker

By Bill Speros

Sep 22nd, 2026 2:44 PM EST

Todd Bowles is in trouble early in Tampa this season (Imagn)

4 Players redeemed today!

Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonus Bets (Paid Over 21 Days) + 3 Months NBA League Pass On Us!

DraftKings Sports Bonus Code

No Code Required

Visit Site

DraftKings Sports Welcome Offer Ts and Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/NH/PR/WY). Void in CAN. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new Sportsbook customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Bets. Stake removed from payout. Reward issued as $50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days via click-to-claim for 21 days. Bonus Bets and click-to-claims expire 7 days (168hrs) after issuance. Terms: dkng.co/offer. Get 1 promo code to redeem a 3-month NBA League Pass subscription, complimentary of DraftKings. Subscription auto-renews monthly at then-current price (currently $16.99/mo); cancel anytime. Terms, restrictions, and eligibility requirements apply. Redeem League Pass by 12/19/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Addt’l terms: support.watch.nba.com/hc/en-us/articles/9165532876183-League-Pass-Terms-of-Use_. Ends 11/29/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

Week 2 of the NFL season stoked the flames under the NFL Coaching Hot Seat and shifted our Next NFL Head Coach Fired odds. Temperatures continued to rise in Tampa Bay, Washington and Indianapolis. Meanwhile, the Matt LaFleur hot seat was switched on after Green Bay struggled to beat the Jets in overtime.

Two games in, our board is sorting itself cleanly by record: three coaches are 0-2 (Todd Bowles - Tampa Bay; Dan Quinn - Washington; Shane Steichen - Indianapolis). Four are 1-1 (Aaron Glenn - Jets; Brian Schottenheimer - Dallas; Dave Canales - Carolina); and LaFleur.

LaFleur Extended in January, Still On The List

Philly's Nick Sirianni remains a constant on our list, despite the Eagles opening 2-0. Tennessee's Robert Saleh and the Titans are 0-2, but he's a first-year hire.

LaFleur signed a contract extension in January and is still showing up on hot-seat lists because his Week 1 loss came via a signature blown fourth-quarter lead against the Vikings. The Packers did their best to repeat the same failure mode against the Jets before winning 20-17. Packers fans know that trend has its roots in last postseason.

One name that topped our board heading into the season, Zac Taylor of the Bengals, has morphed into a potential Coach of the Year candidate.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired: 2026 Odds Chart

Here are the preprod.bookies.com odds on the next NFL coach to be fired. These odds are for informational purposes only and not available on any legal U.S. sportsbook or prediction market platform.

Coaching Hot Seat Updated Sept. 22, 2026

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds

Hypothetical odds on which NFL head coach exits first this season, built from preseason pressure rankings, Week 2 results, and contract situations.

All Favorites Contenders Longshots

32Teams Tracked

10Coaches Fired in '25

+380Current Favorite

Wk 2Board Reflects

Todd Bowles Favorite

Buccaneers · 5th season · 0-2

+38020.8% implied ▼

Tampa Bay dropped to 0-2 with a 23-19 loss to Cleveland, a team not expected to be competitive this year. Bowles' defense — long his calling card — has now allowed 30-plus combined points in back-to-back weeks, the exact profile that put him on this list to begin with.

0-2 Start Lost To Rebuilding Team Defense Collapse

Dan Quinn Favorite

Commanders · 3rd season · 0-2

+42019.2% implied ▼

Washington is 0-2 after a 37-20 loss to Dallas, its worst margin of the young season. Quinn overhauled both coordinators this offseason specifically to avoid a repeat of last year's collapse, and it hasn't shown up yet — two games in, the Commanders are fighting the same defensive issues that ended 2025.

0-2 Start Blown Out By Rival Defense Struggling

Shane Steichen Favorite

Colts · 4th season · 0-2

+50016.7% implied ▼

Indianapolis is winless after an overtime loss at Kansas City — a defensible result against the defending conference favorite, but still 0-2 for a team that opened the year with real playoff expectations. Steichen's margin for error keeps shrinking either way.

0-2 Start OT Road Loss Playoff Expectations

Aaron Glenn Contender

Jets · 2nd season · 1-1

+70012.5% implied ▼

The Jets fell in overtime at Green Bay — a game that also put Matt LaFleur on this list — to move to 1-1, a competitive showing that keeps the early-season optimism from Week 1 mostly intact. Glenn is still working through a full roster rebuild, so a result like this reads as progress rather than alarm.

1-1 Start Competitive OT Loss Rebuild Progressing

Brian Schottenheimer Contender

Cowboys · 2nd season · 1-1

+85010.5% implied ▼

Dallas bounced back from its Week 1 loss with a 37-20 win over Washington, its most complete performance of the young season. One good week doesn't erase the pressure of a rebuild under Jerry Jones, but it buys Schottenheimer some breathing room.

Bounced Back Won Big 1-1 Start

Matt LaFleur Contender

Packers · 8th season · 1-1

+10009.1% implied ▼

Green Bay blew a 22-10 fourth-quarter lead in a 39-22 Week 1 collapse to Minnesota — the same kind of blown lead that cost the Packers an 18-point playoff lead to the Bears last postseason. LaFleur signed a contract extension in January, but multiple outlets kept him on hot-seat watch lists anyway because of exactly this pattern. A 20-17 overtime win over the Jets in Week 2 was a needed bounce-back.

Blown 4Q Lead Signed Extension In Jan. Collapse Pattern

Dave Canales Contender

Panthers · 3rd season · 1-1

+14006.7% implied ▼

Carolina bounced back from its brutal Week 1 loss in the most emphatic way possible, blanking Atlanta 34-3. It's the best single performance by any coach on this board so far, and it's the biggest reason Canales sits mid-pack this week instead of near the top.

Blowout Win 1-1 Start Biggest Bounce-Back

Nick Sirianni Longshot

Eagles · 6th season · 2-0

+25003.8% implied ▼

Philadelphia is 2-0 after holding off Tennessee 24-20, and the Super Bowl expectations that keep Sirianni's name on hot-seat lists are exactly why an undefeated start matters here. Barring a major collapse, he's one of the longer shots on this board.

2-0 Start SB Contender Longshot

Robert Saleh Longshot

Titans · 1st season · 0-2

+28003.4% implied ▼

Saleh's second shot as a head coach started 0-2 in Tennessee, continuing a run of two straight 3-14 finishes that predates him. In an odd twist, his first loss came to the Jets — the team that fired him five games into 2024 — before Philadelphia beat the Titans again in Week 2. It's early, but a new hire this fresh keeps him a longshot regardless of the record.

0-2 Start First Season Lost To Former Team

The Field Longshot

Any other NFL head coach

+33002.9% implied ▼

Ten teams made head-coaching changes for 2026 — nearly a third of the league. Two weeks in, records are already starting to separate contenders from pretenders, and a name outside the current top nine could still land here first.

17-Week Season Anything Can Happen

Hypothetical odds for entertainment purposes only. Not affiliated with any sportsbook. Updated Sept. 22, 2026 — reflects Week 2 results.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Favorites

The issues that sunk the Bucs’ pirate ship in the Ohio River in Week 1 returned Sunday around a monsoon in Tampa Bay in an embarrassing 23-19 loss to the Browns. Todd Bowles remains clueless. And franchise QB Baker Mayfield remains unable to ignite the offense.

Steichen’s Indianapolis defense yielded an NFL-record 1,029 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. The Colts pushed Kansas City to overtime, but could not blunt the mojo of Travis, Taylor and Patrick Mahomes at home. They lost lost WR Alec Pearce for several weeks with an injury.

Things got worse for Dan Quinn in Washington's 37-20 drubbling at the hands of the Cowboys Sunday. Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow. That was the same injury that sidelined him for 5 weeks last season before he returned in Week 14, only to suffer the same injury. That sidelined for him the rest of the season.

The narrative hanging over Quinn remains the same: Can he get his teams over whatever proverbial hump they happen to face. Now, that obstacle just grew another three sizes.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Contenders

The last Jets coach NOT on the NFL Coaching Hot Seat was Weeb Eubank. His team won Super Bowl III some 57 years ago. Glenn – who played for the Jets some 30 years ago - knows this as well as anyone. Glenn's win came after the worst rookie-season record in Jets history. That doesn’t include Bill Belichick – who went 0-0 in both his rookie seasons coaching the team.

The Jets hope not to be fed to the Lions this week.

Brian Schottenheimer could be coach for life in Dallas – Jerry Jones’ life, that is – if he remains in the good graces of the Cowboys owner. Losing to the Giants in Week 1 wasn’t part of the plan. When you become Cowboys’ coach, however, a pair of asbestos pants comes with the job. His impressive win over Washington cooled things for at least another week.

Canales' 34-3 shutout of Atlanta is the best result by anyone on this board.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: The Longshots

There were 10 NFL coaching changes ahead of this season. That means nearly a one-third of the league is no real position to make a move this year unless catastrophe (see Jerod Mayo in New England) hits.

The Eagles are 2-0, but that doesn't matter angry Philly fans. Nor does it mean Siriaanni has any form of extended job security.

42 Players redeemed today!

Up to $250 in Bonus as Five Days of $50 Bet Resets
Promo Code: BOOKIESBR250

Caesars Sports Bonus Code

BOOKIESBR250

Visit Site

Caesars Sports Welcome Offer Ts and Cs: Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MO, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY or Washington, DC. New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. Min. qualifying bet amount: $1. Tokens max. bet amount: $25 per token. Tokens bet max. add'l winnings: $2,500 per token. Token(s) expire 14 days after receipt. Not reissued for voided/pushed bets. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Know When To Stop Before You Start®. Gambling Problem? CO, IL, KY, MD, MI, MO, NJ, TN, VA, WV, WY, KS (Affiliated with Kansas Crossing Casino), ME (Licensed through the Mi’kmaq Nation, Penobscot Nation, and Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, federally recognized tribes located in the State of Maine), NC (Licensed through Tribal Casino Gaming Enterprise), PA (Affiliated with Harrah's Philadelphia): If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or MD: visit mdgamblinghelp.org or WV: visit 1800gambler.net; AZ: Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP; IN: Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT; IA: Call 1-800-BETSOFF; MA: Call 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org, NY: Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369); LA (Licensed through Horseshoe Bossier City and Caesars New Orleans) Call 1-800-522-4700, Washington, DC (OLG Class A licensed Operator): Call 1-800-MY-RESET. ©2026, Caesars Entertainment

Closing / Signals We're Weighing

Here are the key factors used in determining our list.

This week's result — blowouts and losses to lesser opponents move the needle more than a close loss.
Contract timeline — coaches within a year of an expiring deal get less rope.
Ownership's track record — has this owner made a surprise move before, even after a good season?
Division difficulty — a rebuild in a weak division buys more patience than one in a stacked division.
Roster investment — big free-agent or extension money tied to the QB/coach pairing raises the stakes on both sides.

Next NFL Head Coach Fired Odds: FAQs

Q: Which NFL coach is most likely to be fired first in 2026?

A: Todd Bowles is currently the favorite at +380 (20.8% implied probability). Tampa Bay is 0-2 and Bowles' defense — long his calling card — has allowed 30-plus combined points in back-to-back weeks, the exact profile that put him atop this board.

Q: Has an NFL coach been fired already in 2026?

A: No head coach has been fired during the 2026 season so far. Ten coaches were let go following the 2025 season and offseason — one of the largest coaching turnovers in NFL history — which is part of why so many first- and second-year coaches sit near the top of this year's board.

Q: Why do coaching odds change after each week?

A: Sportsbooks and bettors weight recent results heavily, so a bad loss moves a coach's odds more than a full offseason of speculation. After two weeks, three coaches are already 0-2 while others who looked shaky in Week 1 have bounced back — that's the kind of movement a static preseason list can't capture.

Q: Is Todd Bowles on the hot seat with the Buccaneers?

A: Yes. Bowles is 0-2 to open his fifth season, and Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 30-plus combined points across both losses. He's currently the favorite to be the first NFL head coach fired in 2026.

Q: Is Matt LaFleur on the hot seat despite his contract extension?

A: He's on multiple hot-seat watch lists (PFF, FOX Sports, The Athletic) even after signing a multiyear extension in January. The concern isn't his regular-season record — it's a pattern of blown leads, including a 22-10 collapse in Week 1 that echoes the 18-point playoff lead the Packers lost last postseason.

Q: How many NFL head coaches were fired last season?

A: Ten head coaches were fired following the 2025 season, tying one of the largest single-cycle coaching turnovers in NFL history. That churn is a big reason this year's hot-seat board is so heavily populated with coaches in Year 1 through 3.

Odds are hypothetical and built from a combination of preseason hot-seat rankings (CBS Sports, FOX Sports), Week 2 game results, public contract and ownership reporting, and preprod.bookies.com editorial judgment. Updated weekly through the season. For entertainment purposes only — not associated with any sportsbook.